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08/12/16:英国谢菲尔德大学Korsos Marianna博士学术报告
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题目:3D investigation of flaring solar Active Regions
报告人:Korsos MariannaUniversity of Sheffield 
时间:2016812 早上9:00
地点:闻天楼南楼211


Here, we present new studies of the pre-flare behaviour and evolution of Active Regions (ARs). We employ SOHO/MDI and SDO/HMI data, introduce and apply the so-called weighted horizontal gradient of magnetic field (WG_M), defined between opposite polarity spot-groups closer to the polarity inversion line of ARs. This WG_M parameter has the potential to yield important diagnostic information (i) about a more accurate prediction of onset time and (ii) on predicting flare intensity (currently) from C to  X class flares.

 

Next, we will demonstrate how by tracking the temporal evolution of W_GM, the distance between opposite polarity spots and the associated net flux at various heights in the lower solar atmosphere can considerably improve flare forecasting. We demonstrate that the temporal behaviour of WG_M across the chromosphere-low corona interface has new forecast capabilities. We found, that at a certain height within this interface region the converging of opposite polarities begins much earlier than at the photosphere or at other atmospheric heights. We found that the gained forecast capability time could be as high as about 10-12 hrs. Therefore our tool, by identifying the optimum height in the solar atmosphere for flare forecasting, may considerably increase Space Weather predictability.

 
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